The stunning choice of President Obama as the winner of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize -- announced early this morning in Oslo -- comes at a critical juncture both domestically and internationally for his administration and has the potential to give him a political boost in each arena moving forward.
Just one week ago, Obama's image took a blow -- how big or small depends largely on where you stand on the partisan spectrum -- when, just hours after he traveled to Copenhagen to personally make the case for Chicago to host the 2016 Olympics, his hometown was the first city eliminated in the International Olympic Committee's vote.
The peace prize should quickly erase the memory of that embarrassment for Obama and restore his image as a respected player on the world stage in the eyes of the international community.
(In truth, Obama's numbers have never seriously lagged in foreign countries; a September "Transatlantic Trends" poll sponsored by the German Marshall fund found that 77 percent of the members of the European Union and Turkey supported the president's handling of international affairs.)
On the domestic front, Obama's new image as a Nobel Peace Prize winner will most directly affect the ongoing debate over troop levels in Afghanistan.
The issue has, to date, badly divided Obama's own party as well as the American public. In a Pew poll conducted late last month, 50 percent favored keeping U.S. troops in the country while 43 percent voiced support for removing all troops. Obama has not made any formal decision on next steps in the country but reports suggest that he will not reduce the number of U.S. troops, a decision that will not please many in the liberal wing of his party.
Winning the Nobel Prize will allow Obama to go to his divided Democratic caucus and make the case far more forcefully that the time is now to stay united behind him on Afghanistan. It isn't a silver bullet solution as many liberal members have strongly held beliefs on the issue that aren't likely to change simply because Obama is a Nobel Prize winner, but for many who are on the fence, the prize may be just the thing that pushes them onto Obama's side.
In terms of health care, the other major legislative fight roiling Congress at the moment, the impact (if any) is far less clear. While winning such a prestigious prize will surely create a bit of momentum for Obama within the halls of Congress, it's hard to see this as a game-changer in a legislative fight that has been going on for so many months and where the battle lines are so clearly drawn.
The political downside of winning the prize? Expect some Republicans -- and, particularly, conservative talk show hosts on television and radio -- to focus on the idea that Obama is such a beloved figure on the world stage because he has essentially capitulated to the demands of the international community.
Remember that when President Obama was greeted with huge crowds and limitless adoration as he traveled through Europe as a candidate, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was able to turn his international popularity against him, raising questions about whether Obama was ready to stand up for America's interests. Although this event lacks the same campaign context, the same arguments will likely be made by some within the GOP.
In politics, it is often the unexpected event that packs the most punch. And, the president winning the Nobel Peace Prize after just nine months in office qualifies as among the more unexpected turns of events in recent political history. It's clear that the honor should strengthen Obama's hand within his own party in the short-term but how long that newfound political capital lasts -- and whether it has any impact on his outreach to Republicans -- remains to be seen.
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